Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
